Kenya vs Gabon Prediction, Preview & Betting Tips – March 23, 2025

Kenya will face Group F leaders Gabon at the Nyayo National Stadium in Nairobi in a must-win match to keep their 2026 FIFA World Cup hopes alive. This fixture marks Kenya’s first competitive home match in four years, and emotions will be high in the capital.

Match Overview

• Date: Sunday, March 23, 2025

• Venue: Nyayo National Stadium, Nairobi

• Kickoff: 1:00 PM UK time / 4:00 PM East Africa Time

• Competition: FIFA World Cup Qualifiers – Africa (Group F)

  
  

Current Form

Kenya – 4th in Group F (6 points)

Kenya is enduring an eight-match winless streak and has only secured one win in five qualifying matches. The 3-3 draw against Gambia on Thursday showed spirit, with William Wilson scoring a 96th-minute equalizer. However, the defensive frailties persist, having conceded six goals in five qualifiers.

• Last 5 Matches: D-D-D-L-L

• Top Scorer: Michael Olunga

• Manager: Benni McCarthy (2nd game in charge)

  
  

Gabon – 1st in Group F (12 points)

Gabon are in strong form, with four wins in five games, including a dominant 3-0 win over Seychelles. Their only loss came against Ivory Coast. They’ve scored 10 goals and conceded only five. Led by star forward Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, who returns from suspension, Gabon look ready to maintain their World Cup dream.

• Last 5 Matches: W-W-L-W-D

• Key Player: Aubameyang (record scorer)

• Manager: Thierry Mouyouma

  
  

Head-to-Head Stats

• Total Meetings: 5

• Kenya Wins: 2

• Gabon Wins: 2

• Draws: 1

• Last Meeting: Gabon 2-1 Kenya (Nov 2023)

  
  

Both teams have scored 10 goals each in this qualifying campaign, making this fixture finely poised on paper.

Key Match Stats

• Gabon have won all three of their away qualifying matches.

• Gabon opened the scoring in 5 of their last 6 matches.

• Kenya’s last 7 competitive matches have ended without a win.

• 6 of Kenya’s last 7 matches had under 2.5 goals.

• Both teams have scored in 3 of their last 4 head-to-heads.

  
  

Expert Predictions

• Correct Score Prediction: Kenya 1-2 Gabon

• Most Likely Outcome: Draw or Gabon win

• Prediction Verdict: Despite home advantage, Kenya’s defensive issues and winless form make Gabon the more likely victors, especially with Aubameyang returning.

  
  

Best Betting Tips

Odds & Win Probability (Ladbrokes)

• Kenya win: 31/20 (39.2%)

• Draw: 2/1 (33.3%)

• Gabon win: 2/1 (33.3%)

Despite being lower ranked, Kenya are slight bookies’ favorites, likely due to home advantage and fan momentum after Nyayo Stadium reopened.

Final Thoughts

With the return of fans, new management, and urgency for points, Kenya will fight hard. However, Gabon’s consistency, sharper attack, and Aubameyang’s return tilt the scale slightly in their favor.

For bettors, this is a high-stakes, evenly matched tie with value in goals markets and double chance bets.