The Luanda Process: Challenges and the Path Forward

The Luanda Process, intended to foster honest and constructive dialogue between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda, seems unlikely to succeed. This failure stems from allegations of deception and manipulation by Kigali. [ credits by Jean Luc Habyarimana ]

While the President of the DRC continues to present well-documented facts, achieving a positive outcome to these negotiations—or even a simple handshake between the two leaders—remains difficult. Several unresolved issues pose significant challenges:

1. Rwanda’s Role in Instability: Ongoing military actions in eastern DRC are attributed to Rwandan involvement.

2. War Crimes: The acknowledgment of war crimes and crimes against humanity allegedly committed by Rwandan forces and their M23 allies.

3. Resource Exploitation: Systematic plundering of DRC’s mineral resources, as highlighted by various international reports, including those from the United Nations.

   
   

Key Questions for Negotiations

In light of Rwanda’s consistent denials, the fundamental question arises: What would an agreement look like, and how binding could it be if it fails to address the realities on the ground?

For any agreement to hold meaning, it must be rooted in mutual acknowledgment of facts. However, contradictions undermine this foundation:

• Territorial Occupation: How can Rwanda pledge to withdraw troops from territories it denies occupying, despite clear evidence from UN reports?

• Support for Rebels: How can Rwanda stop backing a rebellion it claims not to support, even as it continues to defend the group politically and diplomatically?

  
  

Such contradictions raise doubts about the sincerity of the process and whether it merely serves to legitimize a status quo favorable to Rwanda.

The Broader Geopolitical Stakes

The issue extends beyond regional conflicts. Rwanda’s economic strategy is closely tied to accessing the DRC’s rich mineral resources, essential for its national economy.

This exploitation aligns with international interests, particularly commitments to European partners under the European Gateway project—a strategic initiative to secure critical minerals in response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

The DRC faces increasing international pressure as it defends its sovereignty against well-organized foreign interests that may seek to partition the eastern region to maintain access to these resources.

The DRC’s Existential Challenge

The DRC must navigate a critical choice: defend its unity against external actors or risk losing control of its eastern territories. For Kigali, the most acceptable outcome may be an implicit partition of the DRC ensuring continued access to resources.

Risks of a Weak Agreement

The content of any potential agreement is crucial. If it avoids addressing core issues—such as troop withdrawal and the dismantling of support networks for the M23—it will lack enforceability. Worse, it may serve as political cover to consolidate Rwanda’s current advantages.

Conclusion

For the Luanda Process to succeed, discussions must prioritize the truth of the facts. Without this foundation, any dialogue will likely exacerbate tensions, harming regional stability and the people of eastern DRC.

Rwanda’s leadership, as critics argue, has historically avoided transparency. Only a firm and united approach will ensure that lasting solutions are achieved.